The General Election Campaign
- 5th stage of the process to elect president
- Becomes an intra- party contest as the presidential nominees for the two major parties have to battle it out during the 9 week campaigning
o From September
- 2 issues
o Campaign finance
o Role of TV in the campaign
Campaign finance
ISSUES OF CAMPAIGN FINCANCE
- There were so many disputes , lead to many reforms
- Funding the elections – wealthy donors who give money to the candidates
- If Congress act on behalf of the pressure groups then they are not acting on behalf of the PEOPLE – it is not democratic
- It’s the wealthy that dominate US politics , it creates this feedback loop
o Inequality is big in the USA – Very low taxes
§ This is because special interest groups flood money into politics - BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE OUTCOME OF SOME ELECTIONS THE PARTIES ACTUALLY HAVE THE ABILTY TO RAISE MONEY
§ There is no cap on spending in the elections - more regulations in the UK than the USA
o Can be seen as corruption because they’re buying the elections!
§ To make it not look bad! they would fund the opposing party but in a bad way against them
- There is a problem which creating democracy and preserving the individual’s right to free speech.
- Republicans make sure they agree with the free speech argument / Dems would say loose constructionism where they would say the FF wanted Democracy , not to be ruled by businesses money
- EG: Sheldon Adelson – jewish dontor (Newt Gingrich) – donated a lot
- Federal Election Campaign Act
o Brought from Nixon – made many changes to the process
§ Limited candidates to rely on wealthy donors – ‘Fat cats’
§ Try to equalise the money spend by both parties
- Objectives of the reforms = successful
o Too many loopholes found
o Weakened by SC and Congress
§ Buckley v Valeo 1976 – ruled that limitations on what individuals or Political Action Committees (PACs) could spend on supporting or opposing a candidate infringed the 1st amendment = UNCONSTITUTIONAL
§ 1979 Congress weakened it even more – they allowed parties to raise money for voter registration and get-out-the- vote drives – to motivate people to vote
· Known as ‘Soft Money’ – lead to more reforms
- 2002 reforms from 2 senators – John McCain & Russell Feingold
o Bipartisan Campaign Act – McCain – Feingold law – reverses the 1979 law , stops them from funding directly
- 2004 election saw 5-2-7 groups named after the section of the US tax code – BUSH OPPONENT = JOHN KERRY-
o America Coming together / Swift Boat Veterans – spent millions of $ - MASSIVELY FUNDING BUSH – Smear campaign because he told the world what American Troops did , campaign said he was bad when he only told the truth
BIRA DIDN’T WORK – Obama helped to destroy it
- 2008 election Barack Obama raised big money through the internet and small donors
o Huge success from fundraising
o McCain took the federal money but limited himself that he got a cap for the g. election spending
o 2012 Obama raised $150 mil only in Sept – ability to raise from small donors , HE doesn’t need federal matching funds
§ None of the candidates took any matching funds ($400 million or less = good idea)
§ Shows how strong the candidate is
Super PAC’s
- Citizens United v Federal Election Commission (2010)
o Granted corporate and labour organisations the SAME RIGHT of political free speech as INDIVIDUALS – Campaign finance reform = DEAD
o They had no limits on political expenditure
o Speechnow.org v Federal Election Commission
§ Led to the set ups of SUPER PACs
§ Super PACs – independent expenditure only committees
§ Played a big role in fundraising and spending in 2012
· People seen them as + consequence of deregulation
o Three Super PACs dominated 2012
§ Restore our future $142.6 mil ($88.5 Obama / $14 Romney)
§ American Crossroads (Conserv PAC)$124.1 mil - $103.4 mil on advocating the president $6.7 mil on Romney
§ Priorities USA (Liberal) - $77.7 mil – advocate Romney’s defeat
§ $710 MILLION was spent by SUPER PACs
· Spent in negative campaigning = worrying
SUMMARY
- Gives advantage to the candidates that are appealing to the wealthy
The Role of Television - Old Television – ABC CBS NBC PBS
- New Television – CNN MSNBC
News, interview and talk show programmes
Ø News Coverage
o Where Americans gain knowledge about the campaign
§ From 24 hour- a – day programme on CNN or ABC
§ Programmes = news reporting of the day’s events with small analysis and comment
Ø Political comment programmes
o Include Sunday morning talk show – Meet the press each weekday on PBS
§ In - Depth interviews by respected interviewers
§ Attracts more political audience
Ø Chat Shows
o CNN – Larry King Live
§ Interviews = less searching and less political audience
§ After interviews there are phone – in , people could ask q.s to the guest
§ Programme ran for 25 years – replaced
o 2000 Al Gore and Bush went on Oprah Winfrey Show
o Oct 2000 George. W Bush was in 13 min segment – The Late Show
§ Longer than he was on ABC NBC & CBS
o 2008 Saturday Night Live = Funny impersonation of R VP candidate Sarah Palin by Tina Fey
Political Commercials
o Candidates are limited with media use
o They need to buy time on television to air their commercials – ‘spots’
o Political commercials started in 1952 – Eisenhower ‘The man from Abilene’
§ Eisenhower Answers America – short answers from normal Americans
o 1960s added negative commercials
o Pres.Johnson - ‘Daisy girl’ – picking petals = nuclear explosion for his rival Barry Goldwater
o Does it change people’s minds? Or just shows then what they already know?
o Daisy girl – reinforced voters fear about Goldwater presidency
o Negative commercials can backfire
o 1988 – Willie Horton commercial - Criminal let out of jail then committed rape & murder about Michael Dukakis (Bush opponent)
o The character in the commercial was Black – this lead to people thinking Bush accused of playing fears about black people & crime (says he is soft on black people who commit crimes)
o Using humour in negative commercials
o 1992 Pres.Bush = two politicians blank faces making speeches on issues like free trade , drugs – FACES WERE BILL CLINTON (voice over said)
o Ronald Reagan 1984 – Prouder Stronger Better – Its morning again America
o Words a candidate uses in one election can be used in another to show broken promises
o 1992 – Bush no new taxes promise (broken)- used by Clinton
o 2012 campaign = variety of commercials + & -
o America the Beautiful / Homeless people
The biggest influence
Leads to political education – most people don’t read the news
Nature of the political ad – plays on the negative base emotions of the people
Presidential debates à Televised debates = traditional part of the campaign
o 3 X 90 min debates between two DEM & REPS
o 1 X 90 min between the VP’s
à 1st debates held in 1960
o Different formats evolved over time
o Panel of 3 members of the press who ask questions – 1976 (introduced)
o 1992 – ‘TOWN HALL’ – they were faced the audience
à 2000 debates = round table discussion – candidates spoke to one another
à 2012 – 3 debates = 3 styles
o 1 = two podiums
o 2 = Town Hall
o 3 = candidates at a round table
o VP debate = Biden & Ryan was at a round table
à 1992 – ONLY individual candidate Ross Perot took part in 3 debates
à 1980 Carter refused to turn up to when third party – John Anderson was (only showed for Ronald Reagan
Rarely provided political theatre or shaping the outcome - 3 exceptions
Carter v Reagan 1980
o Debate 28th Oct 1980 – Jimmy Carter & Rep Challenger Ronald Reagan
o End of the debate each candidate given 3 mins to make a closing statement
o Pres.Carter went first – made remarks that were meaningful
o Reagan had questions which he knew voters would answer negatively
§ This made voters support him and support for Carter fell
Reagan v Mondale 1984
o 21 Oct 1984 – Reagan had his 2nd and final debate with former VP Walker Mondale
§ Reagan = 73 and age = issue in the campaign
§ He answered to people that commented on his age and ended the age issue
Obama v Romney 2012
o 1st debate between Obama & Romney
§ Romney = animated , coherent , aggressive
§ Obama was bored! – left Romney’s claims unchallenged and was enjoying
§ 72% Romney votes after the debate thought he had won
§ 20% for Obama
§ Viewers who were Dems thought Romney had won the debate
§ Within a week of the debate Romney was leading
- Debates = not game changing events
Debates rules of thumb - Style is more important than substance
o What you say is not important – HOW you say it and WHAT you look like
§ 2nd Bush –Clinton debate 1992
· Bush was caught looking at his watch – looked like he was eager to end
§ 1st Gore-Bush debate 2000
· Gore He interrupted Bush and made gestures like rolling eyes
§ 1st Obama –Romney debate 2012
· Obama had a passive style
- Verbal gaffes can be costly
o 1976 Ford mistakenly claimed Poland = not under control of Soviet Reunion – BIG ERROR
o 1980 Carter mentioned him and his 10 year old daughter spoke about nuclear weapons
o 2000 Gore made exaggerated claims in the commercials
o 2012 no obvious gaffs but Romney made a remark about trying to appoint women to top jobs
- Good sound bites are helpful
o People don’t watch full debates
o Sound bite = clip in the morning etc
o 1996 Clinton was asked if he thought 73 Bob Dole was too OLD to be Pres
§ I don’t think hes too old , Age of his ideas
o 2008 John McCain got a sound bite at Obama’s expense – Obama kept linking McCain to the unpopular George.W.Bush
o 2012 Obama accused Romney of favouring Foreign Policy of 1980s / Social policy 1950s/ Economic policies 1920’s
- Debates are potentially more difficult for incumbents than for challengers
o Incumbents have to defend words that they have said 4 years earlier
o 1980 Ronald Reagan had this by Pres.Carter ‘There you go again’
o Expectations on incumbents = higher
o 2012 Obama – aired with the challenger = brings the pres down to being a normal politician
o Pres can go to debates with no technique
- Televised commercials and debates can help to convert passive supporters
Viewing Figures
- Viewing figures for debates = vary from one election cycle to another
- High point was in 1980 debate between Carter and Regan which logged 81 million viewers
- Debates of 1996 & 2000 = 40 million viewers
- Last 3 elections = increased
o 53.4 million 2004
o 57.4 million 2008
o 64 million 2012
o Over 69 million watched the debate between BIDEN AND PALIN
o Fewer viewers watched Dick Cheney and Lieberman 2000 = 29 million.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkykrDu32Wo&feature=player_embedded – DEBATES 2008 – that one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3MpFKGNZZA – COMERCIALS
How significant are presidential debates for election campaigns and outcomes
1st point
Viewing figures increase
Only time where the candidates for the general elections are together and 2 months before the actual elections –– national platform and can lead to bounce in the polls such as 2012 Mitt Romney – counter he didn’t win in the end
Bounce it can give
- How significant? Can change the votes
- NOT SIGNIFICANT Sept 2012 Romney had the bounce – first 2012 debate was thought at the time to have been very significant, and certainly had the effect of raising morale, but seems to have had little impact on the final result.
Platform = significant for the underdogs who challenges the incumbent
o They Record to be attacked- past debates issues – PRESIDENTS WOULDN’T HAVE HAD THE TECHNIQUE , whereas others would have had the practise , President doesn’t have time – Mitt Romney 2012
- 1980 ‘There you go again’ said BY Ronald Reagan to Pres. Carter
Through the debate the persona is emerged
o shows how candidates work under pressure
o Kennedy v Nixon debate 1960 – mass audience watching at homes
Didn’t matter what you said , how you said it and what you looked like when you said it – people watched it on TV thought Kennedy , Radio = Nixon ( very unsure of himself on TV sweating)
- Importance of persona – 2012 Obama Cold , uncertain not bothered
BUT
- Still wasn’t important wasn’t sufficient to let Romney win
- Very few are game changers , they don’t result in change
- Big audiences – timing so close to the elections
- Have the ability to change people’s minds
o Bring everyone together
o Debates bring out different views of government
o DO NOT MESS THIS US – shouldn’t make errors
§ Have in your head what to shine
§ ‘zinger’
o Ford carter – challenges carter – who is ahead doesn’t want them – they mess their chances up
§ FORD – messed up his chances – (gaff) with there is no soviet reunion
- Bush looked at his watch in 1992
- Gore showed less interest – sighs, and faces – lack of respect for other candidate
- Not about who won , about the impression you’ve left
- Becomes an intra- party contest as the presidential nominees for the two major parties have to battle it out during the 9 week campaigning
o From September
- 2 issues
o Campaign finance
o Role of TV in the campaign
Campaign finance
ISSUES OF CAMPAIGN FINCANCE
- There were so many disputes , lead to many reforms
- Funding the elections – wealthy donors who give money to the candidates
- If Congress act on behalf of the pressure groups then they are not acting on behalf of the PEOPLE – it is not democratic
- It’s the wealthy that dominate US politics , it creates this feedback loop
o Inequality is big in the USA – Very low taxes
§ This is because special interest groups flood money into politics - BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE OUTCOME OF SOME ELECTIONS THE PARTIES ACTUALLY HAVE THE ABILTY TO RAISE MONEY
§ There is no cap on spending in the elections - more regulations in the UK than the USA
o Can be seen as corruption because they’re buying the elections!
§ To make it not look bad! they would fund the opposing party but in a bad way against them
- There is a problem which creating democracy and preserving the individual’s right to free speech.
- Republicans make sure they agree with the free speech argument / Dems would say loose constructionism where they would say the FF wanted Democracy , not to be ruled by businesses money
- EG: Sheldon Adelson – jewish dontor (Newt Gingrich) – donated a lot
- Federal Election Campaign Act
o Brought from Nixon – made many changes to the process
§ Limited candidates to rely on wealthy donors – ‘Fat cats’
§ Try to equalise the money spend by both parties
- Objectives of the reforms = successful
o Too many loopholes found
o Weakened by SC and Congress
§ Buckley v Valeo 1976 – ruled that limitations on what individuals or Political Action Committees (PACs) could spend on supporting or opposing a candidate infringed the 1st amendment = UNCONSTITUTIONAL
§ 1979 Congress weakened it even more – they allowed parties to raise money for voter registration and get-out-the- vote drives – to motivate people to vote
· Known as ‘Soft Money’ – lead to more reforms
- 2002 reforms from 2 senators – John McCain & Russell Feingold
o Bipartisan Campaign Act – McCain – Feingold law – reverses the 1979 law , stops them from funding directly
- 2004 election saw 5-2-7 groups named after the section of the US tax code – BUSH OPPONENT = JOHN KERRY-
o America Coming together / Swift Boat Veterans – spent millions of $ - MASSIVELY FUNDING BUSH – Smear campaign because he told the world what American Troops did , campaign said he was bad when he only told the truth
BIRA DIDN’T WORK – Obama helped to destroy it
- 2008 election Barack Obama raised big money through the internet and small donors
o Huge success from fundraising
o McCain took the federal money but limited himself that he got a cap for the g. election spending
o 2012 Obama raised $150 mil only in Sept – ability to raise from small donors , HE doesn’t need federal matching funds
§ None of the candidates took any matching funds ($400 million or less = good idea)
§ Shows how strong the candidate is
Super PAC’s
- Citizens United v Federal Election Commission (2010)
o Granted corporate and labour organisations the SAME RIGHT of political free speech as INDIVIDUALS – Campaign finance reform = DEAD
o They had no limits on political expenditure
o Speechnow.org v Federal Election Commission
§ Led to the set ups of SUPER PACs
§ Super PACs – independent expenditure only committees
§ Played a big role in fundraising and spending in 2012
· People seen them as + consequence of deregulation
o Three Super PACs dominated 2012
§ Restore our future $142.6 mil ($88.5 Obama / $14 Romney)
§ American Crossroads (Conserv PAC)$124.1 mil - $103.4 mil on advocating the president $6.7 mil on Romney
§ Priorities USA (Liberal) - $77.7 mil – advocate Romney’s defeat
§ $710 MILLION was spent by SUPER PACs
· Spent in negative campaigning = worrying
SUMMARY
- Gives advantage to the candidates that are appealing to the wealthy
The Role of Television - Old Television – ABC CBS NBC PBS
- New Television – CNN MSNBC
News, interview and talk show programmes
Ø News Coverage
o Where Americans gain knowledge about the campaign
§ From 24 hour- a – day programme on CNN or ABC
§ Programmes = news reporting of the day’s events with small analysis and comment
Ø Political comment programmes
o Include Sunday morning talk show – Meet the press each weekday on PBS
§ In - Depth interviews by respected interviewers
§ Attracts more political audience
Ø Chat Shows
o CNN – Larry King Live
§ Interviews = less searching and less political audience
§ After interviews there are phone – in , people could ask q.s to the guest
§ Programme ran for 25 years – replaced
o 2000 Al Gore and Bush went on Oprah Winfrey Show
o Oct 2000 George. W Bush was in 13 min segment – The Late Show
§ Longer than he was on ABC NBC & CBS
o 2008 Saturday Night Live = Funny impersonation of R VP candidate Sarah Palin by Tina Fey
Political Commercials
o Candidates are limited with media use
o They need to buy time on television to air their commercials – ‘spots’
o Political commercials started in 1952 – Eisenhower ‘The man from Abilene’
§ Eisenhower Answers America – short answers from normal Americans
o 1960s added negative commercials
o Pres.Johnson - ‘Daisy girl’ – picking petals = nuclear explosion for his rival Barry Goldwater
o Does it change people’s minds? Or just shows then what they already know?
o Daisy girl – reinforced voters fear about Goldwater presidency
o Negative commercials can backfire
o 1988 – Willie Horton commercial - Criminal let out of jail then committed rape & murder about Michael Dukakis (Bush opponent)
o The character in the commercial was Black – this lead to people thinking Bush accused of playing fears about black people & crime (says he is soft on black people who commit crimes)
o Using humour in negative commercials
o 1992 Pres.Bush = two politicians blank faces making speeches on issues like free trade , drugs – FACES WERE BILL CLINTON (voice over said)
o Ronald Reagan 1984 – Prouder Stronger Better – Its morning again America
o Words a candidate uses in one election can be used in another to show broken promises
o 1992 – Bush no new taxes promise (broken)- used by Clinton
o 2012 campaign = variety of commercials + & -
o America the Beautiful / Homeless people
The biggest influence
Leads to political education – most people don’t read the news
Nature of the political ad – plays on the negative base emotions of the people
Presidential debates à Televised debates = traditional part of the campaign
o 3 X 90 min debates between two DEM & REPS
o 1 X 90 min between the VP’s
à 1st debates held in 1960
o Different formats evolved over time
o Panel of 3 members of the press who ask questions – 1976 (introduced)
o 1992 – ‘TOWN HALL’ – they were faced the audience
à 2000 debates = round table discussion – candidates spoke to one another
à 2012 – 3 debates = 3 styles
o 1 = two podiums
o 2 = Town Hall
o 3 = candidates at a round table
o VP debate = Biden & Ryan was at a round table
à 1992 – ONLY individual candidate Ross Perot took part in 3 debates
à 1980 Carter refused to turn up to when third party – John Anderson was (only showed for Ronald Reagan
Rarely provided political theatre or shaping the outcome - 3 exceptions
Carter v Reagan 1980
o Debate 28th Oct 1980 – Jimmy Carter & Rep Challenger Ronald Reagan
o End of the debate each candidate given 3 mins to make a closing statement
o Pres.Carter went first – made remarks that were meaningful
o Reagan had questions which he knew voters would answer negatively
§ This made voters support him and support for Carter fell
Reagan v Mondale 1984
o 21 Oct 1984 – Reagan had his 2nd and final debate with former VP Walker Mondale
§ Reagan = 73 and age = issue in the campaign
§ He answered to people that commented on his age and ended the age issue
Obama v Romney 2012
o 1st debate between Obama & Romney
§ Romney = animated , coherent , aggressive
§ Obama was bored! – left Romney’s claims unchallenged and was enjoying
§ 72% Romney votes after the debate thought he had won
§ 20% for Obama
§ Viewers who were Dems thought Romney had won the debate
§ Within a week of the debate Romney was leading
- Debates = not game changing events
Debates rules of thumb - Style is more important than substance
o What you say is not important – HOW you say it and WHAT you look like
§ 2nd Bush –Clinton debate 1992
· Bush was caught looking at his watch – looked like he was eager to end
§ 1st Gore-Bush debate 2000
· Gore He interrupted Bush and made gestures like rolling eyes
§ 1st Obama –Romney debate 2012
· Obama had a passive style
- Verbal gaffes can be costly
o 1976 Ford mistakenly claimed Poland = not under control of Soviet Reunion – BIG ERROR
o 1980 Carter mentioned him and his 10 year old daughter spoke about nuclear weapons
o 2000 Gore made exaggerated claims in the commercials
o 2012 no obvious gaffs but Romney made a remark about trying to appoint women to top jobs
- Good sound bites are helpful
o People don’t watch full debates
o Sound bite = clip in the morning etc
o 1996 Clinton was asked if he thought 73 Bob Dole was too OLD to be Pres
§ I don’t think hes too old , Age of his ideas
o 2008 John McCain got a sound bite at Obama’s expense – Obama kept linking McCain to the unpopular George.W.Bush
o 2012 Obama accused Romney of favouring Foreign Policy of 1980s / Social policy 1950s/ Economic policies 1920’s
- Debates are potentially more difficult for incumbents than for challengers
o Incumbents have to defend words that they have said 4 years earlier
o 1980 Ronald Reagan had this by Pres.Carter ‘There you go again’
o Expectations on incumbents = higher
o 2012 Obama – aired with the challenger = brings the pres down to being a normal politician
o Pres can go to debates with no technique
- Televised commercials and debates can help to convert passive supporters
Viewing Figures
- Viewing figures for debates = vary from one election cycle to another
- High point was in 1980 debate between Carter and Regan which logged 81 million viewers
- Debates of 1996 & 2000 = 40 million viewers
- Last 3 elections = increased
o 53.4 million 2004
o 57.4 million 2008
o 64 million 2012
o Over 69 million watched the debate between BIDEN AND PALIN
o Fewer viewers watched Dick Cheney and Lieberman 2000 = 29 million.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkykrDu32Wo&feature=player_embedded – DEBATES 2008 – that one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3MpFKGNZZA – COMERCIALS
How significant are presidential debates for election campaigns and outcomes
1st point
Viewing figures increase
Only time where the candidates for the general elections are together and 2 months before the actual elections –– national platform and can lead to bounce in the polls such as 2012 Mitt Romney – counter he didn’t win in the end
Bounce it can give
- How significant? Can change the votes
- NOT SIGNIFICANT Sept 2012 Romney had the bounce – first 2012 debate was thought at the time to have been very significant, and certainly had the effect of raising morale, but seems to have had little impact on the final result.
Platform = significant for the underdogs who challenges the incumbent
o They Record to be attacked- past debates issues – PRESIDENTS WOULDN’T HAVE HAD THE TECHNIQUE , whereas others would have had the practise , President doesn’t have time – Mitt Romney 2012
- 1980 ‘There you go again’ said BY Ronald Reagan to Pres. Carter
Through the debate the persona is emerged
o shows how candidates work under pressure
o Kennedy v Nixon debate 1960 – mass audience watching at homes
Didn’t matter what you said , how you said it and what you looked like when you said it – people watched it on TV thought Kennedy , Radio = Nixon ( very unsure of himself on TV sweating)
- Importance of persona – 2012 Obama Cold , uncertain not bothered
BUT
- Still wasn’t important wasn’t sufficient to let Romney win
- Very few are game changers , they don’t result in change
- Big audiences – timing so close to the elections
- Have the ability to change people’s minds
o Bring everyone together
o Debates bring out different views of government
o DO NOT MESS THIS US – shouldn’t make errors
§ Have in your head what to shine
§ ‘zinger’
o Ford carter – challenges carter – who is ahead doesn’t want them – they mess their chances up
§ FORD – messed up his chances – (gaff) with there is no soviet reunion
- Bush looked at his watch in 1992
- Gore showed less interest – sighs, and faces – lack of respect for other candidate
- Not about who won , about the impression you’ve left
Election Day: voting behaviour in presidential elections
- 18 months after the first candidacy announcement – election day – Tuesday after the first Monday in November
- Voter turnout = debate
o high 67% of the voting- age population in 1960 election
o voter turnout dropped to 54.7% - 1980
o 2008 – 62.3% / 2012 – 58.2%
- Result of a presidential election is decided by swing states
o Lots of states will vote for Democrat candidates – Massachusetts , NY , Cali
o Lots will vote for Republicans – Texas , Georgia , Kansas
o There are also a number of swing states – Ohio , Florida , Virginia
§ Ohio has voted for the last 13 winning candidates
· Obama and Romney made 35 visits to Ohio / 31 to Florida / 29 to Virginia
- There are 9 possible factors to show how they vote
Party affiliation Amount of your own side that actually turns out (either Dems or Reps)
- Party affiliation seems to be important determinant of voting behaviour
o 12/16 elections between 1952 – 2012 the party that gained highest amount of support from own identifiers were the ones that won the election
§ 2004 89% of Democrats voted for Kerry but 93% Republicans voted for Bush
§ 2008 & 2012 Obama won 89% and 92% of the Dem votes / McCain won 90% and Romney won 93%
§ Showed that Dems turnout was much more but wiped out Reps advantage
- Elections are decided by ‘independent voters’
o 7/9 elections from 1980 – 2012 – candidate who won majority of the independent votes won the elections
§ 2012 = Romney beating Obama with independent voters 50% - 45%
§ Independent voters = looking for cooperation and compromise
· Asked – important party’s sticking to their positions or cooperating across party lines – 70% SAID COOPERATING AND COMPROMISE
· Dems and Reps were asked they replied 54% and 43%
- Romney were not affiliated to either party – independent votes 53% Romney had won
- But he hadn’t won the NATION!
- Rainbow Coalition – Latinos , A-A , Under 40 College educated
- To gain more turnout in the swing states the nominations need to get people registered to vote – EG: Ohio like Obama did
- Either turn out his base , or gain independent votes – Obama lost the independent votes , he turned out his base.
Gender
- 9/10 elections 1964 – 2000 elections – women were more supportive of Dems than men
o Called Gender Gap – men and women vote in a different fashion
§ 2000 – Bush has 53% Men and only 43% Women
§ Gore had 42% Men and 54% women
§ 1996 gap = even bigger with Clinton v Dole , women 16% more with Clinton
§ 2004 Bush favoured 11% point men and Kerry had 3% point women
§ 2012 Obama gained 11% point women /Romney 7% point men
- Gender gap = with policy differences in the 2 parties
- 5 main policy areas
o Abortion/ Defence/Law and Order/ Gun control / Women rights
§ Dems side = more favoured by women (Equal Rights Amendment- protecting women)
§ Reps side = pro choice abortion / lower spending on defence/ oppose capital punishment / support guns
o 2012 Romney struggled with women – 2 Senators comments on RAPE
Race
- Most significant racial groups in American electorate = African- Americans / Hispanics
- A-A never gave less than 83% support to Dems
o Clinton had a bond with A-A during his presidency and they were his most loyal supporters – during impeachment and trial
- Obama being the first AA candidate for the major party in 2008
o Black voters increased – 88% 2004 /95% 2008
- Hispanics = growing group
o 2010 census they accounted for 16% of the population
o They are from Mexico , Cuba, P.rico
o Bush Rep Campaign 2000 made a pitch for Hispanic votes – he speaks fluent Spanish
§ Bush brother Jeb Bush married a Hispanic
§ Hispanic votes increased 43% 2004
· Dropped in 2012 27%
Religion
- Protestant voters tend to vote Reps – Ronald Reagan 1980 – Romney 2012
- Catholic voters tend to vote Dems – Clinton 1996 – Gore 2000
- Dems = pro-choice on abortion can cause problems for Catholic voters who is ‘pro life
o Bush 2004 won catholic votes 52% against a Dem who was catholic
o Obama 2008 & 12 – had 2% point increase from catholics
- Jewish people vote for Dems – 78% support to Clinton / 79% Gore
- 2000 – Gore’s running mate – Lieberman = JEWISH
- 69% for Obama 2012 = lowest votes from Jews ever because of Obamas policies towards Israel
- 2012 voters who went to religious service more than once a week had 63% of votes for Romney
o Others who didn’t go to services 34% voted for Romney
Age
- 2012 shows there was a correlation between age and voting
o Younger the voters more likely to vote Dems
o Older the voters more likely to vote Reps
- Obama had stronger support from 18 – 29 years olds
- Romney’s support from 65 +
- Dems are more attractive for younger people (policies) – Affordable Care Act provision
Wealth
- Wealth gap narrowed
- Pres.George H.W Bush 1988 – he had the highest income groups by 25% points
o Dems had the lower income groups by the same margins
- Obama had $35,000 by 28% points
- Obama won Wal – Mart / beer vote
- Romney won Starbucks / wine vote
Geographic region
- NE = Dems – used to be Solid South
- 7 elections from 1984 – 2008 NE gave Dems largest % of their votes
- 2012 Dems won every NEstern state
- South = Reps
o 1996 south was only region with Dem ticket Clinton and Gore (both Southerners) and had failed to beat Dole and Kemp (none from south)
- 2000 Reps won every state in the south
- 2008 Obama flipped 3 southern states – Virginia / N.Carolina & Florida
- 2012 N.Carolina went back to Reps
Population area
- More densely populated areas are more Democratic
- More sparsely areas = Reps
- Dems have won 60% of the vote in cities over 500,000
o Except in 1992 independent Perot kept the Dem votes down in bit cities
o 2012 Romney beat Obama in the suburbs 50% - 48%
Policies
- Policies vary in cycles
- State of the economy may be critical
o 2012 – 59% of voters saying economy is important issue
§ Romney gained 4%point adv with these voters
§ Obama = persuaded people that recovery was underway
Why Obama won in 2012 -
6 main reasons why Obama won in the 2012 presidential elections
Incumbency factor
- Since 1761– 31 presidents have run for re-election
- 22/31 have won 9/31 lost
- Defeating a incumbent president with a united party behind him = impossible
o Pres.Ford 1976 / Carter 1980 / George. H/W Bush 1992 were defeated
o 2012 Obama was nominated unopposed
§ Any Rep candidate would have a difficult time defeating him
§ American voters tend to re-elect presidents for a 2nd term
- A LOT MORE COMPLEX THAN THOUGHT – because of the economic crisis he shouldn’t have been elected
ADV- people know who you are, trust you, but hold disappointment on others (broken promises)
Obama - met healthcare – but John Roberts bottled it
- Saving car makers
- Pushed through economic stimulus – Obama argued it would have been worse
- Obama could blame the Republicans – they were obstructive against policy – causing government to shut down – TEA PARTY REPUBLICANS
- Healthcare = FAVOURED poorer people and younger
- Poor people who would have voted for Romney would have been Social conservatives
Obama’s early and effective attacks on Romney - - Obama was much organised and he brought the TV slots when they were very cheap like in Ohio
- Obama used early advantage when Romney was fighting in Reps primaries
- Before Romney could introduce himself as Rep Nominee – Obama campaign already had the former Chief Executive Officer – ‘tax dodging , job outsourcing villain…. Holding up the elderly and poor
o Done through negative TV adverts – Obama $1.2 mil paid
o ‘Mitt Romney is not the solution , He’s the problem’
He ran the better campaign
- He ran the better campaign for – voter registration/ organisation/ use of money/ get out-the-vote operation
- By 2012 spring – Obama has more field offices open = CRITICAL FOR SWING STATES
- Summer Romney had 56 and Obama had 106 in Florida
o GROUND OPERATION – VOLUNTEERS ON THE GROUND Obama did very well , disciplined well organised campaign.
- On election day A-A votes increased 96% Ohio 2008
- Hispanics 17% in Florida voted for Obama
Romney – the man and his gaffes
- Mitt Romney lacks the common touch to get alongside and talk with Americans
- 2008 swapped business suit for jeans in 2012
o Journalist = Romney = uneasy at small talk
- There were verbal gaffes which was 47% remark secretly filmed during Romney fund-rasier
- Romney = far right to win Rep Primaries = he found it hard to move back to the centre before election day
- Obama – ‘Romneisa’
- Voters were confused – didn’t know which Romney was true
- didn’t get the idea that Romney was like the people
- During primaries he was very conservative – hard to go in the centre
- Too conservative for independent voters
- Can’t work out what he is – Obama was very straight
The Clinton and Bush effects
- Obama had help from Clinton in 2012 re-election
o But 2008 Bill Clinton made remarks about Obama because of Hillary Clintons defeat
o 2012 he made persuasive arguments for re-electing the president than himself
§ He was in many TV ads of Obama and he made many speeches
- Obama v George.W Bush – who was to blame for economy? 53% Bush 38% Obama
- Backfired on Obama he had the ‘blame factor’
The October Surprise
- 1st was of Nixon 1972 and Dem challenger George McGovern
- 26th Oct Nixons National security adviser Henry Kissinger = peace with Vietnam
- Oct Surprise = unexpected development or event so late in the campaign that the side it disadvs doesn’t have time to respond to it before the election day
o 2012 Oct Surprise = natural
o Hurricane Sandy
§ Stopped Romney’s post – debate
§ President was taking charge in the Situation Room in the White House
§ Majority option that the President played his role to great effect
· Reps critics said Obama’s actions = ‘outstanding’
- 18 months after the first candidacy announcement – election day – Tuesday after the first Monday in November
- Voter turnout = debate
o high 67% of the voting- age population in 1960 election
o voter turnout dropped to 54.7% - 1980
o 2008 – 62.3% / 2012 – 58.2%
- Result of a presidential election is decided by swing states
o Lots of states will vote for Democrat candidates – Massachusetts , NY , Cali
o Lots will vote for Republicans – Texas , Georgia , Kansas
o There are also a number of swing states – Ohio , Florida , Virginia
§ Ohio has voted for the last 13 winning candidates
· Obama and Romney made 35 visits to Ohio / 31 to Florida / 29 to Virginia
- There are 9 possible factors to show how they vote
Party affiliation Amount of your own side that actually turns out (either Dems or Reps)
- Party affiliation seems to be important determinant of voting behaviour
o 12/16 elections between 1952 – 2012 the party that gained highest amount of support from own identifiers were the ones that won the election
§ 2004 89% of Democrats voted for Kerry but 93% Republicans voted for Bush
§ 2008 & 2012 Obama won 89% and 92% of the Dem votes / McCain won 90% and Romney won 93%
§ Showed that Dems turnout was much more but wiped out Reps advantage
- Elections are decided by ‘independent voters’
o 7/9 elections from 1980 – 2012 – candidate who won majority of the independent votes won the elections
§ 2012 = Romney beating Obama with independent voters 50% - 45%
§ Independent voters = looking for cooperation and compromise
· Asked – important party’s sticking to their positions or cooperating across party lines – 70% SAID COOPERATING AND COMPROMISE
· Dems and Reps were asked they replied 54% and 43%
- Romney were not affiliated to either party – independent votes 53% Romney had won
- But he hadn’t won the NATION!
- Rainbow Coalition – Latinos , A-A , Under 40 College educated
- To gain more turnout in the swing states the nominations need to get people registered to vote – EG: Ohio like Obama did
- Either turn out his base , or gain independent votes – Obama lost the independent votes , he turned out his base.
Gender
- 9/10 elections 1964 – 2000 elections – women were more supportive of Dems than men
o Called Gender Gap – men and women vote in a different fashion
§ 2000 – Bush has 53% Men and only 43% Women
§ Gore had 42% Men and 54% women
§ 1996 gap = even bigger with Clinton v Dole , women 16% more with Clinton
§ 2004 Bush favoured 11% point men and Kerry had 3% point women
§ 2012 Obama gained 11% point women /Romney 7% point men
- Gender gap = with policy differences in the 2 parties
- 5 main policy areas
o Abortion/ Defence/Law and Order/ Gun control / Women rights
§ Dems side = more favoured by women (Equal Rights Amendment- protecting women)
§ Reps side = pro choice abortion / lower spending on defence/ oppose capital punishment / support guns
o 2012 Romney struggled with women – 2 Senators comments on RAPE
Race
- Most significant racial groups in American electorate = African- Americans / Hispanics
- A-A never gave less than 83% support to Dems
o Clinton had a bond with A-A during his presidency and they were his most loyal supporters – during impeachment and trial
- Obama being the first AA candidate for the major party in 2008
o Black voters increased – 88% 2004 /95% 2008
- Hispanics = growing group
o 2010 census they accounted for 16% of the population
o They are from Mexico , Cuba, P.rico
o Bush Rep Campaign 2000 made a pitch for Hispanic votes – he speaks fluent Spanish
§ Bush brother Jeb Bush married a Hispanic
§ Hispanic votes increased 43% 2004
· Dropped in 2012 27%
Religion
- Protestant voters tend to vote Reps – Ronald Reagan 1980 – Romney 2012
- Catholic voters tend to vote Dems – Clinton 1996 – Gore 2000
- Dems = pro-choice on abortion can cause problems for Catholic voters who is ‘pro life
o Bush 2004 won catholic votes 52% against a Dem who was catholic
o Obama 2008 & 12 – had 2% point increase from catholics
- Jewish people vote for Dems – 78% support to Clinton / 79% Gore
- 2000 – Gore’s running mate – Lieberman = JEWISH
- 69% for Obama 2012 = lowest votes from Jews ever because of Obamas policies towards Israel
- 2012 voters who went to religious service more than once a week had 63% of votes for Romney
o Others who didn’t go to services 34% voted for Romney
Age
- 2012 shows there was a correlation between age and voting
o Younger the voters more likely to vote Dems
o Older the voters more likely to vote Reps
- Obama had stronger support from 18 – 29 years olds
- Romney’s support from 65 +
- Dems are more attractive for younger people (policies) – Affordable Care Act provision
Wealth
- Wealth gap narrowed
- Pres.George H.W Bush 1988 – he had the highest income groups by 25% points
o Dems had the lower income groups by the same margins
- Obama had $35,000 by 28% points
- Obama won Wal – Mart / beer vote
- Romney won Starbucks / wine vote
Geographic region
- NE = Dems – used to be Solid South
- 7 elections from 1984 – 2008 NE gave Dems largest % of their votes
- 2012 Dems won every NEstern state
- South = Reps
o 1996 south was only region with Dem ticket Clinton and Gore (both Southerners) and had failed to beat Dole and Kemp (none from south)
- 2000 Reps won every state in the south
- 2008 Obama flipped 3 southern states – Virginia / N.Carolina & Florida
- 2012 N.Carolina went back to Reps
Population area
- More densely populated areas are more Democratic
- More sparsely areas = Reps
- Dems have won 60% of the vote in cities over 500,000
o Except in 1992 independent Perot kept the Dem votes down in bit cities
o 2012 Romney beat Obama in the suburbs 50% - 48%
Policies
- Policies vary in cycles
- State of the economy may be critical
o 2012 – 59% of voters saying economy is important issue
§ Romney gained 4%point adv with these voters
§ Obama = persuaded people that recovery was underway
Why Obama won in 2012 -
6 main reasons why Obama won in the 2012 presidential elections
Incumbency factor
- Since 1761– 31 presidents have run for re-election
- 22/31 have won 9/31 lost
- Defeating a incumbent president with a united party behind him = impossible
o Pres.Ford 1976 / Carter 1980 / George. H/W Bush 1992 were defeated
o 2012 Obama was nominated unopposed
§ Any Rep candidate would have a difficult time defeating him
§ American voters tend to re-elect presidents for a 2nd term
- A LOT MORE COMPLEX THAN THOUGHT – because of the economic crisis he shouldn’t have been elected
ADV- people know who you are, trust you, but hold disappointment on others (broken promises)
Obama - met healthcare – but John Roberts bottled it
- Saving car makers
- Pushed through economic stimulus – Obama argued it would have been worse
- Obama could blame the Republicans – they were obstructive against policy – causing government to shut down – TEA PARTY REPUBLICANS
- Healthcare = FAVOURED poorer people and younger
- Poor people who would have voted for Romney would have been Social conservatives
Obama’s early and effective attacks on Romney - - Obama was much organised and he brought the TV slots when they were very cheap like in Ohio
- Obama used early advantage when Romney was fighting in Reps primaries
- Before Romney could introduce himself as Rep Nominee – Obama campaign already had the former Chief Executive Officer – ‘tax dodging , job outsourcing villain…. Holding up the elderly and poor
o Done through negative TV adverts – Obama $1.2 mil paid
o ‘Mitt Romney is not the solution , He’s the problem’
He ran the better campaign
- He ran the better campaign for – voter registration/ organisation/ use of money/ get out-the-vote operation
- By 2012 spring – Obama has more field offices open = CRITICAL FOR SWING STATES
- Summer Romney had 56 and Obama had 106 in Florida
o GROUND OPERATION – VOLUNTEERS ON THE GROUND Obama did very well , disciplined well organised campaign.
- On election day A-A votes increased 96% Ohio 2008
- Hispanics 17% in Florida voted for Obama
Romney – the man and his gaffes
- Mitt Romney lacks the common touch to get alongside and talk with Americans
- 2008 swapped business suit for jeans in 2012
o Journalist = Romney = uneasy at small talk
- There were verbal gaffes which was 47% remark secretly filmed during Romney fund-rasier
- Romney = far right to win Rep Primaries = he found it hard to move back to the centre before election day
- Obama – ‘Romneisa’
- Voters were confused – didn’t know which Romney was true
- didn’t get the idea that Romney was like the people
- During primaries he was very conservative – hard to go in the centre
- Too conservative for independent voters
- Can’t work out what he is – Obama was very straight
The Clinton and Bush effects
- Obama had help from Clinton in 2012 re-election
o But 2008 Bill Clinton made remarks about Obama because of Hillary Clintons defeat
o 2012 he made persuasive arguments for re-electing the president than himself
§ He was in many TV ads of Obama and he made many speeches
- Obama v George.W Bush – who was to blame for economy? 53% Bush 38% Obama
- Backfired on Obama he had the ‘blame factor’
The October Surprise
- 1st was of Nixon 1972 and Dem challenger George McGovern
- 26th Oct Nixons National security adviser Henry Kissinger = peace with Vietnam
- Oct Surprise = unexpected development or event so late in the campaign that the side it disadvs doesn’t have time to respond to it before the election day
o 2012 Oct Surprise = natural
o Hurricane Sandy
§ Stopped Romney’s post – debate
§ President was taking charge in the Situation Room in the White House
§ Majority option that the President played his role to great effect
· Reps critics said Obama’s actions = ‘outstanding’