Presidential Elections
Preface Political questions
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Elections
When presidential elections occur?
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Requirements for a presidential candidate
- The constitutional requirements
- To be taken seriously
- Natural American citizen - Obama Birther Born in Hawaii
- Residency qualification of 14 years
- At least 35 years old
- Youngest president = Roosevelt 42 / Kennedy 43
- Serve only 2 terms in office
Political experience
- Three groups of politicians are good pools of recruitments
- Vice – presidents
- State governors
- Senators
- 6/11 Repub presidents = ex State governors
- 3/11 = House
- 1/11 = Senate
- Eisenhower is the only president to not have a political background (1952 – Second WW general)
- 2008 Democrat presidential nominations
- Hillary Clinton – 8 years 1st lady & 7 years in Senate - she was well qualified for the role
- If they want to become president they need to be part of a major party
- Eisenhower had to become a Republican
- George Wallace 1968 / John Anderson 1980/ Ross Perot 1996 / Pat Buchanan 2000 = All independent candidates didn’t get elected
- Traditionally = White Males
- 2008 = Hillary Clinton (Woman)
- 2008 = Obama (Male, African American
- 2013 – 20/100 Senators Women and 1 black
- 6 states = Women Governors
- All VP’s been white males
- Advantage to be married
- 1 bachelor pres – James Buchanan 1857
- Senator Edward Kennedy chance ended by Chappaquiddick affair
- Senator Gary Hart – pulled out (pictures of him an a model – ‘Monkey Business’)
- Bill Clinton stayed despite allegations of Gennifer Flowers
- 1980 Ronald Reagan – married twice
- 2008 John McCain divorced his first wife and married again
- People want the president to be someone they can relate to and relate their lifestyle to.
- Campaigns = very expensive and few can finance their own
- Billionaire candidates (Ross Perot 1992) (Steven Forbs 2000) have been able to finance their own campaign from their own pocket
- Need to raise money before primaries and caucuses begin (year before elections)
- Pres.Obama raised $152.2 million in 2011 and Romney $56.1 million
- 2012 (3months) Obama raised $66.4 mil more
- Romney $30.2 million
- Candidate is running to become Rep or Dem presidential candidate
- Cannot use the party’s organisational structure
- Need to create their own organisation
- Time Consuming
- Expensive
- Demanding
- Bad organisation = Bad election
- Michael Dukakis (1998) & Bob Dole (1996) = weak campaign organisations
- Obama had effective organisation which is why he beat Hillary Clinton
- Romney Florida primaries 2012 = good because of his fundraising and organisation
- Look good and speak well on TV
- Abraham Lincoln= Long physique
- Roosevelt – Wheelchair Bound
- Walter Mondale – ‘I’m no good at television’ 1984
- Phil Gramm – ‘I’m too ugly to be president’
- Pres Reagan (Mondale opponent)’ = He was an actor before politician
- Votes for candidates with a ‘policy free zone’ campaign
- Policies = practical and relevant
- Candidates focus on particular issues
- Dem Clinton = ‘the economy, stupid!’
- McCain – Campaign finance reform
- Howard Dean 2004 – War in Iraq
The invisible Primary
Invisible Primary is the period between candidates declaring an intention to run for the presidency and the first contests of the primary season. The invisible primary is said to be critically important for a candidate to gain name recognition and money, and to put together the necessary organisation.
- Invisible primary = in the media - Candidates hope to be in the newspapers / interviews
- Candidate then has formal announcements of them entering presidential race
- 1st major republican to announce his candidacy = Newt Gingrich 11th May 2011
- Rep - Ron Paul announced his 2 days later
- Obama announced his re-election attempt on 4th April 2011
- unusual incumbent President announcing his before opposition challenger announced
- Support at this point shown in opinion polls – state / regional / national
- They have Head-to-head match ups
- There are some formal events
- 16 televised debates - they can change the popularity
- Rick Perry = less than 1% of the vote
- Special events
- Republicans = Iowa Straw Poll fundraising dinners and speeches
- Democrats = Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner
- They Visit certain states especially Iowa and New Hampshire – first caucuses and primaries
- Candidates made 771 visits in 2012 Romney only made 26
- Winner of caucuses and primaries usually person who has visited the states the most
- Candidates raise money - 'War Chest' needs to be taken seriously
- 1999 Elizabeth Dole presidential bid ended because she could raise enough money
- 1999 Al Gore had good money raising skills - beat other Democrat nominations
Front Runners
- It is good to end the invisible primary as front runner - they are usually confirmed as nominees
- 2004 Dem Race - Dean = crushed in primaries
- 2007 - Hilary Clinton 15% lead over Obama
- 10% lead for Rudy Giuliani over John McCain in Republican race
- Obama & McCain who were on to win party nomination