The invisible Primary
Invisible Primary is the period between candidates declaring an intention to run for the presidency and the first contests of the primary season. The invisible primary is said to be critically important for a candidate to gain name recognition and money, and to put together the necessary organisation.
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Formal Events
Fundraising
Front Runners
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Primaries and Caucuses
- 2nd Stage of the process for electing the President
Primary – Election to choose a party’s candidate for an elective office – the presidency
Caucus – Meeting for the selection of a party’s candidate for an elective office
- States that hold caucuses are geographically large but small population
o Iowa/N.Dakota/Nevada
o 2012 – 12 states held Republican caucuses
- In a caucus would – be voters have to attend a meeting than to go to a polling station
o Turnout = lower in caucuses than in primaries
o Caucuses favour ideological candidates
§ 2012 – Rep Candidate Ron Pal who was more liberal in his party , was stronger in caucus states
· He won 36% in Maine and 28% in N.Dakota
- Primaries have 2 functions
o 1. Show popularity of presidential candidates
o 2. Choose delegates to go to the National Party Conventions
Timings of Primaries - Earlier the state , the more influential
- Makes the process longer and longer - stretched out to a large degree
- States decide when to hold their primaries or caucuses
- National parties get the earliest and latest possible dates
o Mid Jan to June
- 2012 primaries the Republican National Committee rules for the selection of delegates stated only in Iowa , New Hampshire, Nevada & South Carolina could hold their delegate selection in Feb 2012
o Other states were between 6th March – 12th June
- Other states deliberately have primaries on the same days as others – creates a regional primary
o 2012 March – 10 states arranged their Republican primaries together – Super Tuesday
o First super Tuesday was held in 1988 – to try to block southern states increasing their importance in the selection process
o 2008 – ST was the earliest and biggest with 22 Dem and 21 Rep contests held on 5th Feb
Super Tuesday: Tuesday is the traditional day for elections in the United States, and during the presidential nominating process, the Tuesday on which the largest number of states hold their primaries is known as Super Tuesday. This year, Super Tuesday is March 6, when 10 states will hold their primaries, choosing a total of 526 delegates (almost half of the 1212 delegates needed for a Republican candidate to win the nomination).
- Statesbelieve the earlier the primary the more influence there is over the candidate selection
- Early Scheduling = Front Loading
- National Party regulate when states can hold primaries
- Trying to allow smaller states first to have major impacts, otherwise candidates would just focus on big states
- Conservs still battled it out in Super Tuesday
o Number of states that have early sched = from 11 – 42 (1980 – 2008)
o Including the 8 largest states – Cali , Texas , NY , Florida, Illinois , Pennsylvania , Ohio , Michigan
o California – from early june moved to early Feb
o 55% of the delegates to the Dem and Rep conventions have already been chosen
Types of Primaries Open Primaries – when they go to the poll, they state whether they are dem or rep and then vote for who they want.
Closed Primaries – when they go to the poll, they state who they are , then only vote for what they are and who.
Blanket primary – Good to overcome partisanship, could vote for anyone , for both – tactical way of voting
SC ruled against it so it stopped in 2000
Raiding – dems vote for conservative republican when they know he won’t be elected
- There are closed and open primaries
- Any registered voter can vote in primaries
o Some states – when you register you have to say your party affiliation – Dem/Rep
- In closed primary only registered Dems can vote in the Democrat Primary and registered Reps can vote in the Republican Primary
- In open primary any registered voter can vote in any primary
- Open primaries = allows cross over voting
o Became an issue in 2008 in Democrat Primaries – open states had big numbers of independent and reps opted to vote in the Dem Primaries for Senator Obama
o 2012 Wisconsin – Rep open prim = 11% Voters said they were Democrats
§ Romney had won with 44%
§ Santorum – 37%
§ But within Dems Santorum beat Romney by 20% points – he was republican
§ This suggests that voters = Conservative Democrats who preferred Santorum policies over Obama and Romney - he encouraged DEMOCRATS to vote for him in the primaries which is unusual
§ OR Dems voted for an ‘easier’ opponent for the President in Nov
- There are modified primaries – like closed primaries but they also allow independent voters who are registered to vote in either parties primaries
o Independent voters don’t allow raiding , because they have no bound on who they choose
o 2012 New Jersey primary = modified primary
- Primaries can be classified as according to how many delegates to the National Party Conventions are won - Proportional primaries
- More proportional primaries = increased voter turnout
- Quicker the nomination confirmed the more influence on the general elections
- Longer the primary process, the longer it would take to battle against their own party – gives advantage to the incumbent president because he wouldn’t have to sit through a primary
o In most primaries , candidates awarded delegates in proportion to votes they get
o Most states = minimum % of votes that a candidate must receive to get any of the state’s delegates – usually 15% of the vote
o All Democrat and most Republican primaries are proportional primaries
§ Some Reps = ‘winner takes all primaries’ – whoever gets most votes wins
§ 2012 the RNC introduced a new rule that stopped any state from having a Winner takes all candidate before Apr 1st
· This meand Romney took longer to accumulate the required number of delegates - longer than McCain in 2008
· McCain = 5th Feb / Romney 29th May 2012
Early Primaries & Caucuses
People try to build up momentum in these states that candidates hope to build up even though they are small states
Expectation games – Hillary Clinton in 2008 was the front runner but she stumbled
Last 5 contested Reps in Iowa only 2 became nominees
It is influential but not always correct- very helpful
Iowa
Acaucusis a local meeting at which party members express their preference for the party’s presidential nominee. Unlike a primary election, a caucus is run by the party itself, not the state or local government. The most famous caucus is Iowa’s, which is the first major electoral event of the nominating process. Other early states which use a caucus system are Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota.
Mitt Romney was the Front Runner , but in IOWA Santorum beat him
Rick Perry pulled out after the Iowa caucus
Ron Paul = Libertarian – Republican believes in small gov on social or federal issue , respectable showing in Iowa
Newt Gingrich – former house speaker – saying caucuses are good because it is internal democracy to see where they are going as a party
- In the caucus meetings – people would discuss and debate , then vote round by round on who they would want as a nominee
- AGAINST: gives unusual outcomes / Surprises
- FOR: ACTIVE PARTICIPATION - More effective and more thought out than primaries – considered voting
- FOR: would give more name to people – Obama wasn’t known before the caucus
- AGAINST: Gives too much power to one state – Senators treat them more generously than others.
- FOR: Despite the low turnout – there is a national spotlight on the state
- Iowa hold the traditional first caucus
o Caucus = attract low turnout
o 2012 Republican caucuses in Wyoming = 2, 108 voters
o 2008 caucus = important for Dem & Reps
§ Rep caucus = Won by Mike Huckabee 34% - Beat Romney (25%)
· 3 months later Huckabee = 8% in national polls
§ Dem caucus = Hillary Clinton 29% , Obama 38%
· First stumble for Clinton
§ Obama went up by 17% in the caucus
New Hampshire
Primary: The majority of states hold a primary instead of a caucus. Whereas caucuses are private events, primary elections are operated by state and local governments using the same equipment as a general election. The primaries of 2012 will be spread over more than six months, starting with New Hampshire’s on January 10, and ending with Utah’s on June 26.
- About going out there and proving that you have momentum
- Last 3 presidents – Clinton (1992) , George W. Bush (2000) , Obama (2008) – NONE won his party’s New Hampshire primary
o They spent a lot of time in the state & media attention = New Hampshire primary = must win
- 5/8 of the last election cycles NH primary voters = rebuff to the front runner of the challenging party
o Same cycles NH primaries confirmed the front runner of the same party on every occasion
à 2008 front runner Rudy Giuliani lost to McCain but said he wasn’t contesting the NH primary and was out till Florida – strategy = DISASTER– focused on more Florida’s primary because it was bigger state , more delegates
à Very brave strategy – didn’t succeed because he didn’t build up any momentum , media didn’t focus on him.
o Buchanan = 2nd in the Rep primary = managed to gain 37% against a incumbent president
à Doing well in NH or Iowa or exceeding expectations (Obama 2008) = 3 bonuses = important
1. Media Coverage
2. Money
3. Boost in opinion polls
à Obama victory in Iowa = big news – 14th Jan
à McCain victory in NH = front cover 4th Feb
à Feb 08 – Obama raised $50million
o His opinion poll ratings went up – BUT 2007 he was behind H.Clinton
à After coming 3rd (15% Florida primary) –Giuliani withdrew from the race – McCain beat him by 20% points
Incumbent presidents and the primaries
- It is most the time uncompetitive – parties don’t like to challenge their own candidates who are incumbent , because it is seen suicidal
o Can be seen as more democratic , was of the party holding the sitting president to account and the peoples changes – even though there is no challenge there is still the threat
- When an incumbent president runs for re-election the primaries for the president parties go on with no coverage at all.
- Some states don’t do primaries
o Obama 2012 – Virginia , S.Carolina, Florida, NY = Dem primary
- Incumbent pres = usually nominated without serious opposition
- Obama was embarrassed in 2012 Dem primaries – had less than 90% of the primary vote in 14 states
- Didn’t reach 60% - West Virginia , Arkansas Kentucky Oklahoma
o West Virginia – Keith Judd won more than 40% (Was in prison)
- Obama had 92% of the total Dem primary vote
- Elections in 1976 80 92 – presidents had significant opposition from within parties
o 76 Ford – faced challenge from governor of Cali – Ronald Reagan
o 80 Carter – faced problems from opposition Edward Kennedy in Dem primaries
o 92 George.H.W – had challenge from Pat Buchanan in Rep primaries
§ Buchanan didn’t win any primary or caucuses –
§ Bush 37% in the NH was embarrassing – Buchanan won more than ¼ of the vote
o Strong primary challenge for the president makes him damaged goods even before he faces his real opponent in the general elections
§ Robin Toner wrote of Buchanan’s criticism of President Bush in that year Rep Primaries = ‘down the road’
§ Dems have given a road map of his vulnerabilities
§ ‘Read our lips: no second term; no new taxes’ - but he ended up raising taxes , Republicans were not happy.
Voter turnout in primaries
- Participation of Presidential primaries have increased since reforms – it has engaged public participation
o Because more states hold primaries – engaging people
o 1968 – nomination cycle under pre-form system 12 million people participated in 17 Democratic and 16 Republican presidential primaries
§ 11% of the voting population
o 1988 – 35 million people participated in 33 Dem and 37 Rep
§ 21% of voting population
o 2008 – 58 million people 37 Dem 39 Reps
§ 30% voting population
o Turnout in individual contests = 53% in NH , 17% in Louisiana
Factors affecting turnout in primaries
- Stephen Wayne found – Better educated/ higher income/ older members of the electorate = more likely to vote in primaries than the opposite
o Tennessee Rep primary – 2012 ½ of voters = degrees and ¼ had more than $100,000 per year , ¾ voters = 45+
o Tennessee = 41% = VERY CONSERVATIVE
- Type of primary can affect turnout
o Open = any registered voter
o Closer = self – identified voters in their own primaries
§ 2012 – 11 states that had open primaries in the Rep contest
· 10 saw increase turnout on 2008
§ 2012 – 15 closed primaries Rep contest
· 2 saw increase
- Turnout = dependent on 2 factors
- 1. How competitive the nomination race is
o 2008 – Missouri Dem Primary 825,050 people turned out to vote between Clinton and Obama
o 4 years later – turnout = 72, 888
2. Turnout will vary on nomination confirmed or not
Makes it lack legitimacy
Lacks partisanship
By stretching it out – if in a later state, whats the point in voting? Nomination = sewn up they have less influence.
-
o Primaries that are earlier = likely to attract higher turnouts than at the end when already known
o 2008 NY rep primary held on 5th Feb – the years super Tuesday when was undecided total = 642, 849
o 2012 NY was held on 24th April and at that time most candidates had dropped out leaving Romney
§ Romney won 63%
- The longest and competitive was between Obama an Clinton for Dem nomination in 2008 – attracted 37 million voters
- When incumbent president is challenged the turnouts = higher
o 2012 turnout was low because of lack of enthusiasm
The increased importance of primaries - Primaries = only route of becoming presidential nominee of a major party
- 1950s and 60s most states didn’t have primaries
- Parties wanted to control candidate selection through State Party Convention
o Any registered voter can vote in a primary or caucus only certain selected party members could be in conventions
o ‘Smoke – filled rooms’ decisions made by ‘party bosses’
§ Leaders like city mayors
- System was undemocratic , elitist , non-participatory and potentially corrupt
- Reformed from Democrat party 1968 NPC
o Convention had chosen VP Humphrey as the presidential candidate even though he wasn’t in the primaries
§ Votes he got = ‘write in’ votes
§ Humphrey lost to Nixon in general election
§ Dems brought out the McGovern- Fraser Commission
· Recommended reform if the presidential nomination process. It was this that led to increase in states holding primaries
Preface :
LESSON NOTES:
Why have primaries?
- Participation – democratic process – people should being involved in democratic
o Primaries = different ways that the people are involved in selecting party candidates
o In theory – to choose the best person, if the party elite elect the nominees its elitists = not what the people want.
o It makes parties more democrat which is important
- Allows people to question
- Candidate has to have the ability to reach out to the other side – opponents to gain votes
o Danger to put in a partisan nominee
o Might choose someone who is ideologically pure but isn’t electable – extent depends on the nature of the primary
o Closed primary – if a conservative was nominated they may not actually be elected in the general elections
o Balance of the nominations to choose someone who is electable.
Key Questions to relate to:
Does public participation in the presidential nomination process advance or hinder democracy?
Origins of the primaries: After 1968 McGovern- Fraser Commission – wasn't democratic VP Humphrey, Primaries were established to bring participation and democracy into the process.
Advance Democracy
- The more use of primaries have replaced the controlled party process – because was the parties decision and little public involvement
- There’s more people enabled to take part of the process so there is more opportunity for people to make the right decision for the right candidate.
-- Someone for them to relate to.
- Allows people to get close to the nominees.
Hinder Democracy
- Closed primaries , open = raiding front loading
- The turnout in primaries and caucuses is very low
§ Voters aren’t representative
- the early states especially Iowa and New Hampshire have disproportionate
- influence – they are smaller states and they focus mainly on winning those states
- The whole process = long process , people may not want to be part of such as long process
- Media has masses of influence on the votes and the way candidates should be seen , rather than the best possible choice - ‘Big Mo’
They system for nominating presidential candidates is in need of reform. Discuss
Yes Needs Reform
- Invisible primary – end up with nominees that are ex politicians
· Name recognition
· Fundraising
o EG: Elizabeth Dole vs George Bush 1999 – she was knocked out, Bush dominated in primaries.
o The whole process is a longed out process , which means that normal government is disrupted because people are too involved in becoming a nominee, therefore should be reformed to find a way around – EG: Hillary Clinton quit being Head of State to run in the elections.
o Obama defines – not being known , allowing people to gain recognition
o Lengthy test for the president has to overcome the test
- Front loading – stretches the process out – it’s a year long electoral campaign
o Republican National Committee – parties have pushed back
o Lettings smaller come before the bigger states.
These two states have a disproportionate influence
o Iowa
o New Hampshire – winning then they are most likely to become nominee
HOWEVER – THE IMPORTANCE = EXAGGERATED, OBAMA, BUSH , HOWEVER IF THEY FOCUS ON THE BIG ONES THEN THEY GET CRUSHED – RUDY GUILIANI – DIDN’T GAIN MOMENTUM ‘BIG MO’
- Media game, it’s the way the media filter things out.
- Open primaries allow raiding to happen
- Closed primaries – promotes partisanship but can lead to someone who cannot be elected
o If there wasn’t then it would be elected by a peer elite – choose someone electable
No reforms needed
- Allows more active participation from the public
- In the caucuses people are able to discuss each candidate and discuss good and bad points – peer review = good , best candidate Obama 2008 Romney 2008.
- There is a plurality of of doing the same thing - having a mix means states can choose what way they want to do
o No one’s strategies work
Strengths of the current nomination process
- Increased participation by ordinary voters
o 2008 – 58 MILLION VOTERS (30%)
- Increase in the choice of candidate
o 1968 – 5 candidates to choose from ( 3D / 2R)
o 2008 – 15 candidates (8D/ 7R)
- Process = open to outsiders
o Who doesn’t have national reputation – Clinton (1992) / Obama (08)
- Power of party bosses = less
o Makes the process more democratic
- Race through the primaries = DEMANDING TEST FOR A DEMANDING JOB
o 2008 Obama = stronger candidate after his primary battle with Hillary Clinton
Weaknesses of the current nomination process
‘Any way you look at it, it’s madness’
Widespread voter apathy and boredom
- In a year of an incumbent president, only one party is in contest
- Turnouts in primaries = 17% (1996 Clinton 17.5%)
- Even when no incumbent presidents 2000 – turnout = 19%
- 2008 – no incumbent , African American and a Woman = 30%
Voters are unrepresentative of the voting- age population
- Primary voters tend to be OLDER , EDUCATED , WEALTHIER, MORE IDEOLOGICAL than the voting – age population
- More ideological voters = to do better in nominations than they should
o 2012 Ron Paul Lib Rep – won 10% vote in 40 primaries and caucuses / states that had caucuses = over 21% vote / states that had primaries = 12% vote
§ SHOWS UNREPRESENTATIVENESS IN CAUCUS STATES
Process is far too long
- 1960 John Kennedy announced his presidency 66 days before the first primary
- 2004 campaign John Kerry announced himself 423 days before
- 2008 Obama announced 332 days before the first primary
o AN AFFECT OF THE MC GOVERN- FRASER
- Process isn’t long if there is an incumbent president
o 2012 Mitt Romney announced on 2 JUNE 2011 (222 Days)
o 3 months later than Obama in 08
- Because of the 2012 rules with Rep Primaries = limiting early primaries
o Harder to have Winner- takes – all primaries
Process is very expensive
- Candidates need to be able to raise large sums of money
o Need to start early
- Campaigns = longer and expensive
- ‘Front loading’ – made there less time to raise money once the primaries started
o By the end of 2011 Obama has raised $125.2 mil - end of June 2012 $300.1 mil
o Romney had raised $56.1 mil – end of June $153.2
Process is too dominated by the media
- In today’s process voters must rely on media for information about the candidate
o Media becoming the new ‘King makers’ – replacement of ‘party bosses’
- Intra – party televised debates before and during the cycle
o 17 D debates / 15 R debates – before IOWA caucus
o 47 debates before the candidates were chosen
o 2012 Rep nomination = driven by the performance of Rep debates
§ Rick Perry forgot his lines 9 Nov 2011
§ Gingrich gave robust defence of his private life in Jan 2012
Primaries can all too easily develop into bitter personal battles
- 2000 Rep primaries – McCain advert accused Geroge.W Bush of not telling the truth
o ‘As low as you can get’ – Bush
- Bad tempered campaigns = George Bush v Pat Buchanan 1992
o Nominees from these campaigns go on to LOSE general elections
- Voters don’t have confidence in disunited parties
- Hillary Clinton = accused of making personal attacks on Obama in 2008 Dem Primaries
Lack of ‘peer review’
- Before, candidates were picked from professional politicians = PEER REVIEW
o The judgement of one’s colleagues or equals
o They knew what was required for a president
- NOW – candidates = chosen by voters
o They don’t know much about presidential qualities
o Professional politicians = ‘uniquely qualified’
- Dems introduced ‘Super delegates’ 1984 convention
o Unnoticed until 2008 with Obama
§ Obama or Clinton didn’t gain a majority of delegate votes through primaries and caucuses
§ Obama = dependent on Super delegates (Dem members of Congress) to bring him to 2,210 delegates needed to win
How to improve the nomination process further
- Reforms are concerned with timings of primaries and attempts to increase the role of professional politicians without being undemocratic
- Reforms could be – a move to regional primaries
- Give greater weight to votes of the elected politicians at the party conventions when they choose the nominee
Are primaries really that important?
- Between 1960 and 2012 = 14 presidential elections / 28 presidential candidates
o 22 of the 28 = the candidate who was finally chosen = same as the candidate who was FRONT RUNNER before votes in primaries and caucuses
§ Rep 13/14 front runners = confirmed as pres candidates (08 exception McCain was chosen over Giuliani
§ Dem – 1968 /1972/1988/2004/2008 – Primaries = significant because they chose a candidate who wasn’t front – runners before process
- Statistics = primaries aren’t important , 2/3 last cycles = IMPORTANT
- John Kerry / McCain / Obama = not front runners
- 2nd Stage of the process for electing the President
Primary – Election to choose a party’s candidate for an elective office – the presidency
Caucus – Meeting for the selection of a party’s candidate for an elective office
- States that hold caucuses are geographically large but small population
o Iowa/N.Dakota/Nevada
o 2012 – 12 states held Republican caucuses
- In a caucus would – be voters have to attend a meeting than to go to a polling station
o Turnout = lower in caucuses than in primaries
o Caucuses favour ideological candidates
§ 2012 – Rep Candidate Ron Pal who was more liberal in his party , was stronger in caucus states
· He won 36% in Maine and 28% in N.Dakota
- Primaries have 2 functions
o 1. Show popularity of presidential candidates
o 2. Choose delegates to go to the National Party Conventions
Timings of Primaries - Earlier the state , the more influential
- Makes the process longer and longer - stretched out to a large degree
- States decide when to hold their primaries or caucuses
- National parties get the earliest and latest possible dates
o Mid Jan to June
- 2012 primaries the Republican National Committee rules for the selection of delegates stated only in Iowa , New Hampshire, Nevada & South Carolina could hold their delegate selection in Feb 2012
o Other states were between 6th March – 12th June
- Other states deliberately have primaries on the same days as others – creates a regional primary
o 2012 March – 10 states arranged their Republican primaries together – Super Tuesday
o First super Tuesday was held in 1988 – to try to block southern states increasing their importance in the selection process
o 2008 – ST was the earliest and biggest with 22 Dem and 21 Rep contests held on 5th Feb
Super Tuesday: Tuesday is the traditional day for elections in the United States, and during the presidential nominating process, the Tuesday on which the largest number of states hold their primaries is known as Super Tuesday. This year, Super Tuesday is March 6, when 10 states will hold their primaries, choosing a total of 526 delegates (almost half of the 1212 delegates needed for a Republican candidate to win the nomination).
- Statesbelieve the earlier the primary the more influence there is over the candidate selection
- Early Scheduling = Front Loading
- National Party regulate when states can hold primaries
- Trying to allow smaller states first to have major impacts, otherwise candidates would just focus on big states
- Conservs still battled it out in Super Tuesday
o Number of states that have early sched = from 11 – 42 (1980 – 2008)
o Including the 8 largest states – Cali , Texas , NY , Florida, Illinois , Pennsylvania , Ohio , Michigan
o California – from early june moved to early Feb
o 55% of the delegates to the Dem and Rep conventions have already been chosen
Types of Primaries Open Primaries – when they go to the poll, they state whether they are dem or rep and then vote for who they want.
Closed Primaries – when they go to the poll, they state who they are , then only vote for what they are and who.
Blanket primary – Good to overcome partisanship, could vote for anyone , for both – tactical way of voting
SC ruled against it so it stopped in 2000
Raiding – dems vote for conservative republican when they know he won’t be elected
- There are closed and open primaries
- Any registered voter can vote in primaries
o Some states – when you register you have to say your party affiliation – Dem/Rep
- In closed primary only registered Dems can vote in the Democrat Primary and registered Reps can vote in the Republican Primary
- In open primary any registered voter can vote in any primary
- Open primaries = allows cross over voting
o Became an issue in 2008 in Democrat Primaries – open states had big numbers of independent and reps opted to vote in the Dem Primaries for Senator Obama
o 2012 Wisconsin – Rep open prim = 11% Voters said they were Democrats
§ Romney had won with 44%
§ Santorum – 37%
§ But within Dems Santorum beat Romney by 20% points – he was republican
§ This suggests that voters = Conservative Democrats who preferred Santorum policies over Obama and Romney - he encouraged DEMOCRATS to vote for him in the primaries which is unusual
§ OR Dems voted for an ‘easier’ opponent for the President in Nov
- There are modified primaries – like closed primaries but they also allow independent voters who are registered to vote in either parties primaries
o Independent voters don’t allow raiding , because they have no bound on who they choose
o 2012 New Jersey primary = modified primary
- Primaries can be classified as according to how many delegates to the National Party Conventions are won - Proportional primaries
- More proportional primaries = increased voter turnout
- Quicker the nomination confirmed the more influence on the general elections
- Longer the primary process, the longer it would take to battle against their own party – gives advantage to the incumbent president because he wouldn’t have to sit through a primary
o In most primaries , candidates awarded delegates in proportion to votes they get
o Most states = minimum % of votes that a candidate must receive to get any of the state’s delegates – usually 15% of the vote
o All Democrat and most Republican primaries are proportional primaries
§ Some Reps = ‘winner takes all primaries’ – whoever gets most votes wins
§ 2012 the RNC introduced a new rule that stopped any state from having a Winner takes all candidate before Apr 1st
· This meand Romney took longer to accumulate the required number of delegates - longer than McCain in 2008
· McCain = 5th Feb / Romney 29th May 2012
Early Primaries & Caucuses
People try to build up momentum in these states that candidates hope to build up even though they are small states
Expectation games – Hillary Clinton in 2008 was the front runner but she stumbled
Last 5 contested Reps in Iowa only 2 became nominees
It is influential but not always correct- very helpful
Iowa
Acaucusis a local meeting at which party members express their preference for the party’s presidential nominee. Unlike a primary election, a caucus is run by the party itself, not the state or local government. The most famous caucus is Iowa’s, which is the first major electoral event of the nominating process. Other early states which use a caucus system are Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota.
Mitt Romney was the Front Runner , but in IOWA Santorum beat him
Rick Perry pulled out after the Iowa caucus
Ron Paul = Libertarian – Republican believes in small gov on social or federal issue , respectable showing in Iowa
Newt Gingrich – former house speaker – saying caucuses are good because it is internal democracy to see where they are going as a party
- In the caucus meetings – people would discuss and debate , then vote round by round on who they would want as a nominee
- AGAINST: gives unusual outcomes / Surprises
- FOR: ACTIVE PARTICIPATION - More effective and more thought out than primaries – considered voting
- FOR: would give more name to people – Obama wasn’t known before the caucus
- AGAINST: Gives too much power to one state – Senators treat them more generously than others.
- FOR: Despite the low turnout – there is a national spotlight on the state
- Iowa hold the traditional first caucus
o Caucus = attract low turnout
o 2012 Republican caucuses in Wyoming = 2, 108 voters
o 2008 caucus = important for Dem & Reps
§ Rep caucus = Won by Mike Huckabee 34% - Beat Romney (25%)
· 3 months later Huckabee = 8% in national polls
§ Dem caucus = Hillary Clinton 29% , Obama 38%
· First stumble for Clinton
§ Obama went up by 17% in the caucus
New Hampshire
Primary: The majority of states hold a primary instead of a caucus. Whereas caucuses are private events, primary elections are operated by state and local governments using the same equipment as a general election. The primaries of 2012 will be spread over more than six months, starting with New Hampshire’s on January 10, and ending with Utah’s on June 26.
- About going out there and proving that you have momentum
- Last 3 presidents – Clinton (1992) , George W. Bush (2000) , Obama (2008) – NONE won his party’s New Hampshire primary
o They spent a lot of time in the state & media attention = New Hampshire primary = must win
- 5/8 of the last election cycles NH primary voters = rebuff to the front runner of the challenging party
o Same cycles NH primaries confirmed the front runner of the same party on every occasion
à 2008 front runner Rudy Giuliani lost to McCain but said he wasn’t contesting the NH primary and was out till Florida – strategy = DISASTER– focused on more Florida’s primary because it was bigger state , more delegates
à Very brave strategy – didn’t succeed because he didn’t build up any momentum , media didn’t focus on him.
o Buchanan = 2nd in the Rep primary = managed to gain 37% against a incumbent president
à Doing well in NH or Iowa or exceeding expectations (Obama 2008) = 3 bonuses = important
1. Media Coverage
2. Money
3. Boost in opinion polls
à Obama victory in Iowa = big news – 14th Jan
à McCain victory in NH = front cover 4th Feb
à Feb 08 – Obama raised $50million
o His opinion poll ratings went up – BUT 2007 he was behind H.Clinton
à After coming 3rd (15% Florida primary) –Giuliani withdrew from the race – McCain beat him by 20% points
Incumbent presidents and the primaries
- It is most the time uncompetitive – parties don’t like to challenge their own candidates who are incumbent , because it is seen suicidal
o Can be seen as more democratic , was of the party holding the sitting president to account and the peoples changes – even though there is no challenge there is still the threat
- When an incumbent president runs for re-election the primaries for the president parties go on with no coverage at all.
- Some states don’t do primaries
o Obama 2012 – Virginia , S.Carolina, Florida, NY = Dem primary
- Incumbent pres = usually nominated without serious opposition
- Obama was embarrassed in 2012 Dem primaries – had less than 90% of the primary vote in 14 states
- Didn’t reach 60% - West Virginia , Arkansas Kentucky Oklahoma
o West Virginia – Keith Judd won more than 40% (Was in prison)
- Obama had 92% of the total Dem primary vote
- Elections in 1976 80 92 – presidents had significant opposition from within parties
o 76 Ford – faced challenge from governor of Cali – Ronald Reagan
o 80 Carter – faced problems from opposition Edward Kennedy in Dem primaries
o 92 George.H.W – had challenge from Pat Buchanan in Rep primaries
§ Buchanan didn’t win any primary or caucuses –
§ Bush 37% in the NH was embarrassing – Buchanan won more than ¼ of the vote
o Strong primary challenge for the president makes him damaged goods even before he faces his real opponent in the general elections
§ Robin Toner wrote of Buchanan’s criticism of President Bush in that year Rep Primaries = ‘down the road’
§ Dems have given a road map of his vulnerabilities
§ ‘Read our lips: no second term; no new taxes’ - but he ended up raising taxes , Republicans were not happy.
Voter turnout in primaries
- Participation of Presidential primaries have increased since reforms – it has engaged public participation
o Because more states hold primaries – engaging people
o 1968 – nomination cycle under pre-form system 12 million people participated in 17 Democratic and 16 Republican presidential primaries
§ 11% of the voting population
o 1988 – 35 million people participated in 33 Dem and 37 Rep
§ 21% of voting population
o 2008 – 58 million people 37 Dem 39 Reps
§ 30% voting population
o Turnout in individual contests = 53% in NH , 17% in Louisiana
Factors affecting turnout in primaries
- Stephen Wayne found – Better educated/ higher income/ older members of the electorate = more likely to vote in primaries than the opposite
o Tennessee Rep primary – 2012 ½ of voters = degrees and ¼ had more than $100,000 per year , ¾ voters = 45+
o Tennessee = 41% = VERY CONSERVATIVE
- Type of primary can affect turnout
o Open = any registered voter
o Closer = self – identified voters in their own primaries
§ 2012 – 11 states that had open primaries in the Rep contest
· 10 saw increase turnout on 2008
§ 2012 – 15 closed primaries Rep contest
· 2 saw increase
- Turnout = dependent on 2 factors
- 1. How competitive the nomination race is
o 2008 – Missouri Dem Primary 825,050 people turned out to vote between Clinton and Obama
o 4 years later – turnout = 72, 888
2. Turnout will vary on nomination confirmed or not
Makes it lack legitimacy
Lacks partisanship
By stretching it out – if in a later state, whats the point in voting? Nomination = sewn up they have less influence.
-
o Primaries that are earlier = likely to attract higher turnouts than at the end when already known
o 2008 NY rep primary held on 5th Feb – the years super Tuesday when was undecided total = 642, 849
o 2012 NY was held on 24th April and at that time most candidates had dropped out leaving Romney
§ Romney won 63%
- The longest and competitive was between Obama an Clinton for Dem nomination in 2008 – attracted 37 million voters
- When incumbent president is challenged the turnouts = higher
o 2012 turnout was low because of lack of enthusiasm
The increased importance of primaries - Primaries = only route of becoming presidential nominee of a major party
- 1950s and 60s most states didn’t have primaries
- Parties wanted to control candidate selection through State Party Convention
o Any registered voter can vote in a primary or caucus only certain selected party members could be in conventions
o ‘Smoke – filled rooms’ decisions made by ‘party bosses’
§ Leaders like city mayors
- System was undemocratic , elitist , non-participatory and potentially corrupt
- Reformed from Democrat party 1968 NPC
o Convention had chosen VP Humphrey as the presidential candidate even though he wasn’t in the primaries
§ Votes he got = ‘write in’ votes
§ Humphrey lost to Nixon in general election
§ Dems brought out the McGovern- Fraser Commission
· Recommended reform if the presidential nomination process. It was this that led to increase in states holding primaries
Preface :
LESSON NOTES:
Why have primaries?
- Participation – democratic process – people should being involved in democratic
o Primaries = different ways that the people are involved in selecting party candidates
o In theory – to choose the best person, if the party elite elect the nominees its elitists = not what the people want.
o It makes parties more democrat which is important
- Allows people to question
- Candidate has to have the ability to reach out to the other side – opponents to gain votes
o Danger to put in a partisan nominee
o Might choose someone who is ideologically pure but isn’t electable – extent depends on the nature of the primary
o Closed primary – if a conservative was nominated they may not actually be elected in the general elections
o Balance of the nominations to choose someone who is electable.
Key Questions to relate to:
Does public participation in the presidential nomination process advance or hinder democracy?
Origins of the primaries: After 1968 McGovern- Fraser Commission – wasn't democratic VP Humphrey, Primaries were established to bring participation and democracy into the process.
Advance Democracy
- The more use of primaries have replaced the controlled party process – because was the parties decision and little public involvement
- There’s more people enabled to take part of the process so there is more opportunity for people to make the right decision for the right candidate.
-- Someone for them to relate to.
- Allows people to get close to the nominees.
Hinder Democracy
- Closed primaries , open = raiding front loading
- The turnout in primaries and caucuses is very low
§ Voters aren’t representative
- the early states especially Iowa and New Hampshire have disproportionate
- influence – they are smaller states and they focus mainly on winning those states
- The whole process = long process , people may not want to be part of such as long process
- Media has masses of influence on the votes and the way candidates should be seen , rather than the best possible choice - ‘Big Mo’
They system for nominating presidential candidates is in need of reform. Discuss
Yes Needs Reform
- Invisible primary – end up with nominees that are ex politicians
· Name recognition
· Fundraising
o EG: Elizabeth Dole vs George Bush 1999 – she was knocked out, Bush dominated in primaries.
o The whole process is a longed out process , which means that normal government is disrupted because people are too involved in becoming a nominee, therefore should be reformed to find a way around – EG: Hillary Clinton quit being Head of State to run in the elections.
o Obama defines – not being known , allowing people to gain recognition
o Lengthy test for the president has to overcome the test
- Front loading – stretches the process out – it’s a year long electoral campaign
o Republican National Committee – parties have pushed back
o Lettings smaller come before the bigger states.
These two states have a disproportionate influence
o Iowa
o New Hampshire – winning then they are most likely to become nominee
HOWEVER – THE IMPORTANCE = EXAGGERATED, OBAMA, BUSH , HOWEVER IF THEY FOCUS ON THE BIG ONES THEN THEY GET CRUSHED – RUDY GUILIANI – DIDN’T GAIN MOMENTUM ‘BIG MO’
- Media game, it’s the way the media filter things out.
- Open primaries allow raiding to happen
- Closed primaries – promotes partisanship but can lead to someone who cannot be elected
o If there wasn’t then it would be elected by a peer elite – choose someone electable
No reforms needed
- Allows more active participation from the public
- In the caucuses people are able to discuss each candidate and discuss good and bad points – peer review = good , best candidate Obama 2008 Romney 2008.
- There is a plurality of of doing the same thing - having a mix means states can choose what way they want to do
o No one’s strategies work
Strengths of the current nomination process
- Increased participation by ordinary voters
o 2008 – 58 MILLION VOTERS (30%)
- Increase in the choice of candidate
o 1968 – 5 candidates to choose from ( 3D / 2R)
o 2008 – 15 candidates (8D/ 7R)
- Process = open to outsiders
o Who doesn’t have national reputation – Clinton (1992) / Obama (08)
- Power of party bosses = less
o Makes the process more democratic
- Race through the primaries = DEMANDING TEST FOR A DEMANDING JOB
o 2008 Obama = stronger candidate after his primary battle with Hillary Clinton
Weaknesses of the current nomination process
‘Any way you look at it, it’s madness’
Widespread voter apathy and boredom
- In a year of an incumbent president, only one party is in contest
- Turnouts in primaries = 17% (1996 Clinton 17.5%)
- Even when no incumbent presidents 2000 – turnout = 19%
- 2008 – no incumbent , African American and a Woman = 30%
Voters are unrepresentative of the voting- age population
- Primary voters tend to be OLDER , EDUCATED , WEALTHIER, MORE IDEOLOGICAL than the voting – age population
- More ideological voters = to do better in nominations than they should
o 2012 Ron Paul Lib Rep – won 10% vote in 40 primaries and caucuses / states that had caucuses = over 21% vote / states that had primaries = 12% vote
§ SHOWS UNREPRESENTATIVENESS IN CAUCUS STATES
Process is far too long
- 1960 John Kennedy announced his presidency 66 days before the first primary
- 2004 campaign John Kerry announced himself 423 days before
- 2008 Obama announced 332 days before the first primary
o AN AFFECT OF THE MC GOVERN- FRASER
- Process isn’t long if there is an incumbent president
o 2012 Mitt Romney announced on 2 JUNE 2011 (222 Days)
o 3 months later than Obama in 08
- Because of the 2012 rules with Rep Primaries = limiting early primaries
o Harder to have Winner- takes – all primaries
Process is very expensive
- Candidates need to be able to raise large sums of money
o Need to start early
- Campaigns = longer and expensive
- ‘Front loading’ – made there less time to raise money once the primaries started
o By the end of 2011 Obama has raised $125.2 mil - end of June 2012 $300.1 mil
o Romney had raised $56.1 mil – end of June $153.2
Process is too dominated by the media
- In today’s process voters must rely on media for information about the candidate
o Media becoming the new ‘King makers’ – replacement of ‘party bosses’
- Intra – party televised debates before and during the cycle
o 17 D debates / 15 R debates – before IOWA caucus
o 47 debates before the candidates were chosen
o 2012 Rep nomination = driven by the performance of Rep debates
§ Rick Perry forgot his lines 9 Nov 2011
§ Gingrich gave robust defence of his private life in Jan 2012
Primaries can all too easily develop into bitter personal battles
- 2000 Rep primaries – McCain advert accused Geroge.W Bush of not telling the truth
o ‘As low as you can get’ – Bush
- Bad tempered campaigns = George Bush v Pat Buchanan 1992
o Nominees from these campaigns go on to LOSE general elections
- Voters don’t have confidence in disunited parties
- Hillary Clinton = accused of making personal attacks on Obama in 2008 Dem Primaries
Lack of ‘peer review’
- Before, candidates were picked from professional politicians = PEER REVIEW
o The judgement of one’s colleagues or equals
o They knew what was required for a president
- NOW – candidates = chosen by voters
o They don’t know much about presidential qualities
o Professional politicians = ‘uniquely qualified’
- Dems introduced ‘Super delegates’ 1984 convention
o Unnoticed until 2008 with Obama
§ Obama or Clinton didn’t gain a majority of delegate votes through primaries and caucuses
§ Obama = dependent on Super delegates (Dem members of Congress) to bring him to 2,210 delegates needed to win
How to improve the nomination process further
- Reforms are concerned with timings of primaries and attempts to increase the role of professional politicians without being undemocratic
- Reforms could be – a move to regional primaries
- Give greater weight to votes of the elected politicians at the party conventions when they choose the nominee
Are primaries really that important?
- Between 1960 and 2012 = 14 presidential elections / 28 presidential candidates
o 22 of the 28 = the candidate who was finally chosen = same as the candidate who was FRONT RUNNER before votes in primaries and caucuses
§ Rep 13/14 front runners = confirmed as pres candidates (08 exception McCain was chosen over Giuliani
§ Dem – 1968 /1972/1988/2004/2008 – Primaries = significant because they chose a candidate who wasn’t front – runners before process
- Statistics = primaries aren’t important , 2/3 last cycles = IMPORTANT
- John Kerry / McCain / Obama = not front runners